Oil is increasingly driving the rates market, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.78%. Traders now see roughly 64% odds of an interest-rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September 16 meeting, up from about 36% before Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address. Gold fell to approximately $4,435 an ounce after gaining 10% in August.
Bitcoin has held near $78,000 following a 23% rally, a sign that may be more significant than the rally itself. “Holding around $78,000 after a 23% surge is more telling than the surge itself,” said Yusuf Fakhro, partner at ARP Digital, in an email. He added that perpetual open interest is at its lowest level since May, while U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their strongest week of demand since October 2025. Together, those trends suggest the August advance was driven by spot demand rather than crowded leveraged positions that could trigger further selling.
Bitcoin ETF flows have since weakened. Trading firm Wintermute recorded $924 million in bitcoin ETF inflows during nine consecutive positive sessions before a $202 million outflow ended the run on Friday. Bitcoin has been rejected at the $82,000 level each time since.
“Market’s on edge but lacks directional conviction in the short term,” said Jasper De Maere, OTC trader at Wintermute, in an email.
U.S. jobs data could set bitcoin’s next move
Friday’s August payrolls report will be the final major labor-market indicator released before the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. With interest-rate hike expectations already close to two-thirds, a stronger-than-expected jobs report could push Treasury yields higher and send bitcoin back toward the overnight low of $77,200.
