Malik Nabers entered the offseason as one of the biggest injury concerns in fantasy football after undergoing a second procedure on his knee. However, recent updates have been significantly more encouraging than expected, creating a potential buying opportunity for fantasy managers.
Should You Draft Malik Nabers in Fantasy Football?
Nabers’ fantasy football outlook appeared genuinely concerning early in the summer. After his unexpected second knee cleanup procedure, it seemed possible he would begin the season on the physically unable to perform list and potentially miss games into October.
That assessment has changed with new information. Nabers avoided the PUP list to begin training camp, and he has looked sharper than expected while running routes. He now appears to be on track to play in Week 1.
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That does not mean Nabers will immediately return to his pre-injury form. Players rarely come back from this type of injury and look completely like themselves right away. However, the likelihood that he will play in Week 1 is a major positive that changes the calculation surrounding his fantasy draft price.
A fully healthy Nabers would rank as my WR5, making him a player I would gladly select in the middle of the first round. That version of Nabers may not be available immediately, but he could realistically reach that level by midseason. His upside makes him worth a second-round price.
This evaluation does not require projecting a sudden improvement in Nabers’ talent. He is already a proven player, and his ability has never been in question. The concern has always centered on his recovery from the knee injury.
His average draft position has risen following the positive reports, but it remains surprising to see an elite WR1 available outside the first round when he is very likely to suit up in Week 1.
A reminder of Nabers’ rookie production puts the opportunity into perspective. He led the NFL with a 34.9% target share and averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game. He produced those numbers while catching passes from Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito. Jaxson Dart should be an upgrade over all three quarterbacks.
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That is the fantasy football bet in simple terms: even if Nabers performs as an unexciting WR2 during the first half of the season before developing into an elite WR1 late in the year, his upside still justifies his current cost. The second half of the season is also when fantasy managers need difference-makers most.
Nabers is my WR8, well ahead of his WR13 ADP. That difference is the key point. The market still appears to be pricing in a worst-case outcome that the latest developments have already begun to make less likely.
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This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.
Source: sports.yahoo.com
