Southern California Tropical Storm Threat Remains Unlikely, Forecasters Say
Forecasters say the likelihood of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall in Southern California in the coming days remains low, despite uncertainty surrounding what the National Weather Service called a challenging Labor Day weekend forecast.
Concerns have grown after some weather models suggested that a tropical storm could form off the coast of Mexico this week and bring strong winds and rain to Southern California. However, forecasters are reassuring residents that the chances of damage-inducing weather remain small.
The main message is that while significant winds and rain associated with a tropical storm is possible, it is the least likely outcome at this point,
the NWS said in a bulletin.
Weather models show significant uncertainty
CBS LA meteorologists said current models show the potential storm is still about six days away, leaving considerable room for changes in its track and strength.
Only a minority of models are actually showing a tropical system reaching Southern California,
said CBS LA Weather Producer Patrick Wright. There’s a lot that goes into a tropical storm, or system in general, making it to Southern California … Everything must go perfectly correct for that to happen.
Models show tropical developments in the Pacific Ocean.
The systems developing in the Pacific Ocean this week appear likely to be massive, Wright said. Even small changes in their behavior could significantly affect their projected paths and intensity.
A perfect sequence of events that we’re not very confident in
would have to occur for a tropical system to strengthen and travel north toward Southern California, Wright said.
Current forecasts point to high humidity and only slight chances of rain showers. We could see absolutely nothing,
he said. Or, some minority models show something, which these details can be ironed out over the next couple of days.
