A tropical disturbance developing near the southern tip of Baja California could bring rainfall and elevated surf to Southern California this weekend, but forecasters say it is too early to predict the system’s impact.
The National Weather Service said a reliable forecast will not be possible until the disturbance develops into a tropical storm and begins moving.
“It’s very much in the air at this point, other than the elevated surf,” said Lauren Villafane, a National Weather Service meteorologist. “That’s the only thing we can say with any kind of certainty.”
If the storm remains near the coast, Southern California could face a 20% chance of rain over the weekend, along with increased swells along the coastline, meteorologists said.
Storm’s path will determine Southern California impacts
If the system moves west, similar to Hurricane Karina over the weekend, its effects would likely be limited to sustained high humidity and elevated surf.
“This happens every year,” said Mike Wofford, another National Weather Service meteorologist. “Off Mexico, they form, they move on the ocean and they go in different directions depending on what the upper pattern is.
“Most of these systems tend to weaken considerably before they get here,” he added.
The cautious forecast issued Monday contrasted with online and social media speculation over the weekend that a hurricane could reach Southern California. Some posts even referred to the potential storm as Hurricane Marie.
The disturbance is developing as Southern California receives a break from a prolonged heat wave that brought higher-than-normal humidity.
Villafane said the cold water off the California coast “really does kill a lot of storms, so we don’t have to worry about it being a hurricane by the time it gets up here, if it does at all.”
Southern California’s most recent tropical storm
The last tropical storm to reach Southern California was in August 2023, when Hurricane Hilary traveled along the West Coast. However, it weakened before making landfall.
Even so, the storm produced record rainfall, including about 8.5 inches on Mt. Wilson. Most valley areas received between 2 and 4 inches.
Forecasters said it remains too soon to determine how the current tropical disturbance could affect Southern California.
“We have to see what happens in terms of the direction it takes and whether it crosses the (U.S.-Mexico) border or not, and then how much … rain develops,” Wofford said. “There’s a lot of unknowns. The storm hasn’t even formed yet.”
