Regulated cryptocurrency trading in Russia could reach at least 4 trillion rubles ($46.43 billion) during its first year, according to estimates from Sberbank, after the Bank of Russia approved draft rules allowing investors to purchase crypto assets legally through licensed brokers from September 1.
Sberbank Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board Anatoly Popov said the forecast was conservative because only a portion of Russia’s existing cryptocurrency activity is expected to shift to regulated brokers initially.
The bank projects that regulated crypto trading could gradually increase to approximately 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.06 billion) by 2029 as investors move toward official exchange channels.
“According to Finance Ministry data as of February, the daily volume of cryptocurrency transactions in Russia is around 50 billion rubles, or roughly 18 trillion rubles a year. SberCIB Investment Research analysts have a fairly conservative estimate: in the first year after legalization, around 20% of this volume, or 3.5-4 trillion rubles a year, will be traded on exchanges. This figure could rise to 4.75-5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 and to 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029,” Popov told TASS.
Limits on Russia’s regulated crypto market
Continued use of unregistered cryptocurrency exchange services is one factor that could limit regulated trading volumes. Other constraints include statutory investment caps and the narrow range of crypto assets currently available through official channels.
Non-qualified investors may purchase up to 300,000 rubles (about $3,800) in cryptocurrency per year through a single licensed intermediary after completing a risk-awareness test. The Bank of Russia has justified the restriction as an investor-protection measure.
Although the central bank recently relaxed the requirements for qualified investor status, those investors remain limited to cryptocurrency investments of up to 3 million rubles (about $38,000), restricting their ability to conduct large-volume trades.
At present, only Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) have been approved by the Bank of Russia for trading on official Russian exchanges. Other major altcoins therefore remain unavailable through the regulated market.
Exchanges can register by July 1, 2027, following the transition period.
