Bitcoin’s recent cryptocurrency market recovery has revived bullish expectations, but on-chain data suggests the market may still face further downside. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said Bitcoin may not have reached the cycle’s ultimate price bottom, warning that the BTC price could fall to $53,000 or lower if historical patterns repeat.
Wedson’s analysis focused on the MVRV Z-Score, an on-chain indicator used to assess market value, realized value and investor behavior. He said on-chain metrics reflect how investors behave during periods of market euphoria and fear, making them relevant for evaluating Bitcoin’s broader market cycles.
Bitcoin’s 2018 Crash Offers a Historical Comparison
Wedson compared Bitcoin’s current market structure with the 2017–2018 cycle. According to his analysis, the MVRV Z-Score formed three major peaks during the 2017 bull market before Bitcoin reached its all-time high.
After Bitcoin peaked and began to decline, the indicator formed a base between approximately 0.25 and 1.16. Wedson noted that many market participants did not expect another sharp drop at the time. However, Bitcoin fell again in November 2018, reaching approximately $3,180.
During the 2024–2025 period, the MVRV Z-Score also formed three separate peaks, Wedson said. He added that enthusiasm around those peaks was more limited than in 2017 because the market had become more complex than in previous cycles.
Following Bitcoin’s recent decline from its peak, the MVRV Z-Score formed a base in an area similar to the one observed in 2018. Wedson said the indicator has recently risen again, with Bitcoin’s price moving higher alongside it.
“MVRV Z-Score Has Not Yet Fallen into Negative Zone”
Wedson identified the indicator’s failure to enter the negative zone as the primary risk. Historically, that zone has been associated with major Bitcoin cycle lows.
Wedson stated that based on the available data, he constantly asked himself the same question: If the MVRV Z-Score needs to go down, will the Bitcoin price follow the indicator?
Based solely on on-chain data, the Alphractal founder said there are not enough signals to confirm that Bitcoin’s current decline represents the ultimate market bottom.
Wedson said Bitcoin may need to fall to at least approximately $53,000 or even lower for the conditions he is monitoring to be met.
The analyst emphasized that his assessment was not financial advice. He said it was a direct examination of the data rather than a challenge to the current bullish narrative in the market.
Recalling that most market participants also did not anticipate another sharp decline in 2018, Wedson said the key question was whether the current Bitcoin cycle would end in a similar way to previous cycles.
At this stage, Wedson said, on-chain indicators point to continuing downside risks rather than definitively confirming that “the bottom has been reached” for Bitcoin.
This is not investment advice.
