We have analyzed the results of the special survey “Survey on Japanese Overseas Travel Awareness in the Future during the COVID-19 Crisis” conducted in 2018, and summarized the outlook for the overseas travel market in the phase of recovery in demand and Japanese people’s overseas travel intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

1. Recovery of international airline seat supply in East Asia is the key to the revival of the overseas travel market

In the phase of demand recovery, the supply side, such as international flight seat supply, will have a major impact. Looking at the international seat supply, Europe and the United States, where border measures were eased early, have already reached pre-corona levels on some routes, while Asia, including Japan, is far behind. Looking at each Asian country, we can see that the recovery rate is particularly low in East Asia, such as mainland China and Hong Kong. In 2019, before the coronavirus, one of the reasons why the number of overseas tourists hit a record high was linked to the increase in the number of tourists visiting Japan, mainly from East Asia. The low recovery rate in East Asia, which is a major market for both departures and arrivals, is expected to have a major impact on the demand recovery phase.

[RecoveryrateofinternationalairpassengerdemandinJuly-August2022(2019=100%)]

Source: Created by JTB Research Institute, Inc. based on OAG* data there is

Source: Created by JTB Research Institute, Inc. based on OAG* data there is

2. The keyword for the overseas travel market in the phase of recovery in demand is “providing value that matches rising travel costs”
A keyword for the overseas travel market in the phase of recovery in demand is the rise in travel costs, including local accommodation costs. Rising travel costs may have the effect of shifting travelers to relatively lower-cost destinations. You can see that Asia, including , is also rising.
On the other hand, looking at the awareness of travelers, in the “Survey on the future overseas travel awareness of Japanese people during the corona crisis” conducted in March 2022 for Japanese people, Hawaii and Taiwan is ranked high, and this result is the same as last year’s survey result.

Significant increases in travel costs for most major destinations is a phenomenon not seen in the last 30 years, but that does not mean that travelers have lost their appetite for international travel. Even if travel costs rise, it is important in the phase of recovery in demand to find out who are the travelers who want to travel abroad and what value they seek, and to provide appropriate value. It looks like it’s going to be a point.

[EstimatedlocalcostincreaseratebydestinationasofJuly2022(2019=100%)]

Source: Commodity prices are based on materials related to the Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report, and exchange rates are prepared by JTB Research Institute, Inc. based on the Bank of Japan. (1.406 times)

Source: Commodity prices are based on materials related to the Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report, and exchange rates are prepared by JTB Research Institute, Inc. based on the Bank of Japan. (1.406 times)

Source: JTB Research Institute Co., Ltd. “Survey of Japanese people’s attitudes toward overseas travel in the future due to the corona crisis” (conducted in March 2022)

Source: JTB Research Institute Co., Ltd. “Survey of Japanese people’s attitudes toward overseas travel in the future due to the corona crisis” (conducted in March 2022)

3. The biggest psychological hurdle for overseas travel is the risk of contracting infectious diseases and illnesses
According to the “Survey on Japanese Overseas Travel Awareness in the Future of the Corona Crisis” conducted in March 2022, people are worried about infectious diseases and illnesses, such as “I’m afraid of contracting infectious diseases and illnesses such as the new coronavirus.” was found to be the biggest psychological hurdle. Anxiety about infectious diseases is expected to remain even in the future demand recovery phase.

In addition, “There is a quarantine period when entering or returning home” is also ranked high. Japan’s border measures were significantly eased in early September, but attention will be paid to the extent to which this will lead to a recovery in demand for overseas travel for tourism purposes.

Source: JTB Research Institute Co., Ltd. “Survey of Japanese people’s attitudes toward overseas travel in the future due to the corona crisis” (conducted in March 2022)

Source: JTB Research Institute Co., Ltd. “Survey of Japanese people’s attitudes toward overseas travel in the future due to the corona crisis” (conducted in March 2022)
[This report can be purchased from the link below]Japanese site:

https://www.tourism.jp/store/item/whitepapers/jtb-outbound-report-2022/English site:

https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/publications/jtb-outbound-report-2022/

————————————————————————————–
“JTB Overseas Travel Report 2022 All About Overseas Travel in the Japanese Market”
・ Supervision: JTB Co., Ltd.
・Editing/publishing/sales:
JTB Research Institute Co., Ltd.
7F Tokyo Front Terrace, 2-3-14 Higashi-Shinagawa, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo 140-0002
TEL: 03-6260-1200 ／ FAX: 03-6260-1210

・ List price: 13,200 yen (main unit 12,000 yen)