After the announcement of mobilization, the number of IT specialists who left Russia may be two to three times higher than this spring. Such a forecast was given by the executive director of the Association of Computer and Information Technology Enterprises (APKIT) Nikolai Komlev, informs RBC.

Ivan Begtin, head of the Information Culture ANO, believes that 100,000 potentially left IT specialists is “the minimum bar that we need to build on now.” Specialists fleeing the country are afraid of several waves of mobilization, as well as the risk of not falling under the postponement criteria. According to Begtin, for example, those who do not have a higher specialized education do not fall under the reservation.

At the same time, in the center competencies in import substitution in the field of information and communication technologies did not agree with the assessment of a two- or three-fold increase in the number of leaving IT specialists. They also believe that the postponement measures will affect most specialists.

However, the main thing is not the loss of employees, but the brain drain, thinks Professor of the Department of Economic and Social Geography of Russia, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University Natalya Zubarevich. In her opinion, in the long term, the mobilization and the growing number of those killed and wounded in the war in Ukraine will lead to a reduction in the already small cohort of Russians in working age. “As a rule, people who are more affluent and educated leave,” she notes.

The day before The Bell informedthat hundreds of employees of Russian IT companies were included in the lists for mobilization. About 180 subpoenas were received by Yandex specialists. Employees of another online service with a staff of more than 1,000 people received 30 summonses. “Jellyfish” wrote on the delivery of subpoenas to 40 employees of Tinkoff Bank.

September 27 published a list of 195 specialties that can provide IT, communications and media employees with a reprieve. At the same time, employees must work in accredited companies and perform “critical functions.” Another key condition is a specialized higher education. Secondary special or retraining will not work.

The Ministry of Digital Transformation also launched on State Services form for deferment applications and granted instructions for completing it. “Layout” noticed, that in one of the paragraphs, IT specialists with specialized education were asked to “explain the need to be present at work.” The department will send the first lists to the General Staff on September 29. The decision to postpone will be made by the Ministry of Defense.

In the spring, the Russian Association of Electronic Commerce estimated the number of specialists who left the country immediately after the start of the war in Ukraine at 50-70 thousand people. Another 70,000-100,000 could leave for the “second wave” in April. At the same time, at the end of spring, the government, referring to the geolocation data of the SIM card, stated that some of the specialists who left – up to 85% – returned to Russia.